Downing Street responded furiously to the release of an important paper forecast that a no-deal Brexit would result in supplies of meat, medication and gasoline, with no 10 reports blaming the revelation on a violent prime minister intending to ruin Boris Johnson's journey to see EU officials this week.
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The published paper, describing plans under Operation Yellowhammer, claims that if there is a no-deal Brexit on October 31, the most probable situation is serious prolonged gaps in the supply of medicines and lack of some new ingredients.
It said that a long time ago there would be a transfer to a difficult frontier on Ireland and a "three-month meltdown" at ships unable to deal with additional controls. According to the documents, protests could break out across the UK, requiring major police intervention, and two oil refineries could close, with thousands of job losses.
Those campaigning against a no-deal Brexit said all the warnings about the risks of crashing out without an agreement were confirmed by the official Cabinet Office document. Tom Brake, a leading Liberal Democrat MP, said it revealed the truth that no deal would "have wartime implications, all of which were self-inflicted in peacetime."
The Freight Transport Association (FTA) also responded with caution to the concept of especially petrol shortages, stating the govt had not communicated these opportunities to them.
"This is the first moment the industry has learned of any menace to the supply of petrol – a especially disturbing scenario as this would impact the motion of products across the nation, not just to and from Europe, and could jeopardize employment across the industry that prevents Britain trading," a spokeswoman said.
In a lecture on Monday, Jeremy Corbyn will accuse Johnson of "provoking the crises that our nation is facing this summer," as he wishes to transform the UK into a tax haven on Europe's coasts in the US style.
It is understood that the Labor leader is willing to back up the calls by more than 100 MPs for parliament to be recalled to discuss the seriousness of the situation, after pledging last week to call a vote of confidence in Johnson's leadership and seeking to build support to install himself as a caretaker prime minister until a general election can take place.
Senior public officials shifted to contest it after the Yellowhammer study appeared and dismissed its dire warnings. Michael Gove, the minister for no-deal scheduling at the Cabinet Office, said the report indicated "totally the worst situation," and it was an "ancient paper" that didn not represent important measures made by Johnson's administration over the past four decades.
Speaking to Sky News, energy minister Kwasi Kwarteng rejected it as something with "a bunch of scaremongering around and many individuals are participating in Project Fear and all the remainder of it." The Gibraltar government also stated that projections of queues at the frontier with Spain of up to four hours were "outdated" and relied on "scheduling for worst-case situations."
A source No 10 was even more critical, claiming that the leak came from one of the former ministers of Theresa May to undermine Johnson's trip to see Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, on Wednesday and French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday.
Despite the report released to the Sunday Times, published previously this month when Johnson was already in the newspaper, Senior No 10 official said: "This report comes from when ministers blocked what had to be accomplished to get prepared to quit and the resources were not accessible. In an effort to impact conversations with EU officials, a previous minister intentionally disclosed it.
"Those obstructing preparation is no longer in government, £ 2bn of additional financing has already been rendered accessible, and Whitehall has stepped up to do the job through the regular ministerial conferences. Government's whole stance has altered."
Privately, Downing Street advisors claim that EU leaders will not offer any concessions to a new deal unless they are certain that a no-deal Brexit cannot be blocked by parliament. They are already putting the phase to account for any weakness in EU agreements for previous ministers operating against no agreement, like Philip Hammond and Greg Clark.
However, Conservative insurgents and government MPs seeking to halt a Brexit no-deal claim Johnson intentionally laid the cap too low in his requests for the EU to abandon the backstop – the compensation system to halt a difficult frontier in Ireland.
Johnson is anticipated to reiterate at his conferences with Merkel and Macron that he will only embrace a fresh agreement that leaves the backstop over issues that he might catch the UK in a customs union permanently.
As the EU jointly refuses to compromise on the problem, No 10 expects only minimal debate of Brexit with Merkel and Macron – more a re-establishment of the current roles of each side.
Instead, debates are anticipated to revolve around the timetable for the G7 Summit next week in Biarritz, France, on problems such as foreign policy and safety problems, global economy and trade, climate and conservation.
Whitehall departments are increasingly having no agreement with their core situation without any fresh agreement in view. It is recognized that Priti Patel, the home secretary, sent some of her civil servants to Singapore to explore their boundary model, as she wishes safe to travel to stop on October 31.
May's administration had intended to implement an immigration bill to stop the start of free motion until fresh schemes were in position, but Patel thinks it can be halted by timely secondary legislation and fresh agreements.
EU citizens residing in the UK will be allowed to remain under the "settled status" scheme, but campaign groups warn that some people may be left in legal limbo, particularly if they travel frequently between the UK and the EU.
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